Assessment of a potential outburst for Lower Varshedzkul Lake (Pamir, Tajikistan) using bathymetric survey and modeling

Y.K. Raimbekov, U.R. Pirmamadov, F.O. Marodaseino, I.I. Zikillobekov, A.G. Gulomaydaro, S.S. Chernomorets, E.A. Savernyuk, I.V. Krylenko, I.N. Krylenko, V.M. Kidyaeva, V.A. Kurovskaia, K.S. Viskhadzhiev, R.A. Bobov

Published in: 2020

Publisher: Dushanbe: Publishing House "Promotion"LLC

Region / Country: Tajikistan

Topics: GLOF, debris flow, mudflows
Abstract:

Local processes of geological hazards (rock falls, debris flows and avalanches of moderate magnitude) often occur in the mountains of Tajikistan, and the population has learned how to cope with them. Different situation is happening with distant geological threats of high magnitude and low frequency. Employees of the Aga Khan Agency for Habitat, Branch in Tajikistan, together with experts from Moscow State University, Russia, conducted field research, including bathymetric surveying of lakes, route survey of valleys, which can cause breakthrough mudflows and floods, aerial survey of key sites using unmanned aerial vehicle. Modeling of a possible outburst of Lower Varshedzkul Lake is being conducted based on the results of the research. The geomorphological structure of the valley was evaluated. The input data for the simulation were the data on the relief of the territory and possible scenarios for the outburst of mountain lakes, the simulation results were the planned distribution of depths of flooding, flow rates and potential hazard for the mountain valleys below the outburst-hazardous lakes, the time of flooding. The tasks of the work included preparing the relief for modeling, developing scenarios of outbursts or descent of debris flows and floods, estimating the parameters of the outburst hydrographs, modeling the movement of outburst floods and debris flows in the studied valleys and assessing the characteristics of flooding.

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