About
Context
Central Asia is one of the regions most sensitive to climate change, with limited adaptive capacity posing significant threats to socio-economically disadvantaged groups, indigenous communities, and ethnic minorities. These groups are particularly vulnerable due to low resilience and coping capacities.
Glacial melting and the formation of glacial lakes are among the most critical effects of global warming in the region. Glacier loss is estimated at 0.2–1% per year by volume, leading to the formation of glacier lakes and an increased risk of Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Studies predict that future climate change could result in glacier mass losses of 31–66% in the Tien Shan range alone.
Nearly 100,000 people in mountainous areas face GLOF threats, with many more downstream at risk. These vulnerabilities are compounded by the popularity of mountain tourism, which increases exposure. GLOFs have already caused significant economic damage and loss of life, including the 1998 GLOF in Uzbekistan and the 2002 GLOF in Tajikistan. As a transboundary hazard, GLOFs affect multiple countries in Central Asia, highlighting the urgent need for regional cooperation.
Project Overview
The “Reducing vulnerabilities of populations in Central Asia from glacier lake outburst floods in a changing climate” (GLOFCA) project, launched in April 2021, is a UNESCO initiative funded by the Adaptation Fund.
The project aims to mitigate GLOF risks by assessing vulnerabilities, mapping glacier lakes, increasing local awareness, and implementing Early Warning Systems (EWS) in pilot communities across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
Coverage
Spanning nearly 350,000 km², GLOFCA focuses on GLOF-prone areas where EWS and mitigation measures are being deployed. This regional approach fosters resilience to climate change through shared knowledge and best practices in disaster risk reduction.
Pilot sites include:
- Kazakhstan: Esik and Talgar
- Uzbekistan: Pskem and Tepar
- Kyrgyzstan: Ala-Archa Valley and Lake Tosor
- Tajikistan: Selected GLOF-prone communities
Objectives and Approach
GLOFCA strengthens climate change adaptation in Central Asia by reducing risks and vulnerabilities associated with GLOFs. Key objectives include:
- Assessing vulnerabilities and risks
- Strengthening monitoring and response capacities
- Establishing early warning systems
- Raising awareness among decision-makers and communities
Through scientific research, risk assessments, and capacity-building initiatives, the project equips local authorities and communities to respond effectively to GLOF threats. GLOFCA’s efforts enhance regional preparedness, safeguarding lives and livelihoods.
DRR & Adaptation in Central Asia
Disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) are gaining momentum in Central Asia. However, challenges persist, including:
- Limited focus on prevention and preparedness
- Weak policy coordination
- Insufficient monitoring and risk analysis
- Gaps in early warning systems and public awareness
GLOFCA addresses these barriers, supporting the region’s shift toward proactive DRR and climate resilience.