Исследование эффективности мер по снижению риска ППЛО в долине Ала-Арча, Кыргызская Республика
Река Ала-Арча, берущая начало высоко в горах Тянь-Шаня, протекает через Национальный парк «Ала-Арча» и столицу Кыргызской Республики — Бишкек. Парк был создан для сохранения уникальных экосистем и биоразнообразия Северного Тянь-Шаня и сегодня является одним из самых популярных направлений страны для туризма и горного отдыха.
В то же время долина относится к наиболее подверженным селевым процессам территориям региона. Прорывы ледниковых озёр, в частности Ак-Сай и Тезтор, неоднократно становились причиной разрушительных селевых потоков. Последнее крупное событие, зафиксированное в 2024 году, привело к разрушению более 25 жилых домов и одному смертельному случаю.
На этом фоне в журнале Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences опубликовано исследование, оценивающее эффективность мер по снижению риска паводков от прорыва ледниковых озер (ППЛО) и селевых потоков на примере Национального парка «Ала-Арча». С применением численного моделирования гравитационных процессов в исследовании проанализированы три инженерные меры: искусственное снижение уровня озёр, строительство отводной дамбы и создание удерживающего бассейна. В работе представлено сопоставление их влияния на снижение подверженности населения и объектов инфраструктуры рискам ППЛО и селевых потоков.
Исследование выполнено под руководством Лауры Ниггли в соавторстве с учёными Цюрихского университета, Центрально-Азиатского института прикладных исследований Земли (ЦАИИЗ) и Университета Центральной Азии (УЦА) в рамках проекта GLOFCA. Проект финансируется Адаптационным фондом и реализуется Региональным Офисом ЮНЕСКО в Алматы в партнёрстве с Цюрихским университетом. Цель проекта — снижение уязвимости населения стран Центральной Азии к рискам ППЛО.
Внедрение систем раннего оповещения (СРО) является ключевым компонентом проекта GLOFCA. Результаты исследования формируют количественную основу для оценки эффективности инженерных мер, дополняющих системы раннего оповещения и усиливающих комплексную стратегию управления рисками. Исследование показывает, что, несмотря на наиболее благоприятное соотношение затрат и эффективности при искусственном понижении уровня озёр, следует учитывать сравнительно высокие расходы на их последующее обслуживание и эксплуатацию.
Хольгер Фрей из Цюрихского университета, соавтор исследования, подчёркивает:«Наиболее эффективным, наименее затратным и устойчивым подходом к управлению рисками бедствий остаётся долгосрочное территориальное планирование, основанное на систематических картах опасностей».
Ссылка на исследование: https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/26/733/2026/
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