Исследовательская миссия GLOFs в Таджикистане
С 19 по 30 августа 2024 года в Таджикистане была проведена полевая экспедиция, направленная на углубление наших представлений о наводнениях в результате прорыва ледниковых озер (GLOF). Эта миссия, возглавляемая доктором Эваном Майлзом из Цюрихского университета, включала сотрудничество с учеными из Центра изучения ледников Национальной академии наук Таджикистана. Целью поездки была оценка ледника Баралмос и связанных с ним озер, внедрение нового оборудования для мониторинга и укрепление местного научного потенциала.
Ледник Баральмос: Значение и проблемы
Ледник Баралмос в Лахшском районе восточного Таджикистана является ключевым объектом для изучения GLOF. Озера ледника в прошлом генерировали значительные селевые потоки, которые воздействовали на расположенные ниже по течению районы. Эти наводнения привели к серьезным разрушениям местной инфраструктуры, включая дороги и населенные пункты вдоль реки Сурхоб. Понимание и мониторинг этого ледника крайне важны для разработки эффективных стратегий по снижению опасности.
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Работа во время полевого визита
Оценка и мониторинг
В ходе миссии команда сосредоточилась на оценке ранее созданных мониторинговых площадок. Они использовали два новых вида оборудования: батиметрический катер и георадар. Дистанционно управляемый катер с гидролокатором использовался для измерения глубины ледниковых озер. Команда успешно обследовала 2 озера глубиной 43 и 45 метров, получив важные данные об объеме воды и динамике озера. Для измерения толщины ледникового льда использовался георадар. Точные данные о толщине льда крайне важны для прогнозирования потенциального роста ледниковых озер и связанных с ними рисков наводнений.
Полевые работы также включали компонент наращивания потенциала, в рамках которого д-р Майлз обучил местных ученых из Центра изучения ледников Национальной академии наук Таджикистана работе и применению этих новых инструментов. Это обучение гарантирует, что местная команда сможет проводить будущие оценки и вносить вклад в текущий мониторинг.
Разведка для внедрения системы раннего предупреждения (СРП)
В дополнение к оценочным мероприятиям команда провела разведку потенциальных мест для внедрения системы EWS. Эта система предназначена для обнаружения и своевременного оповещения о надвигающихся наводнениях. Процесс разведки включал в себя оценку географических и технических факторов для определения оптимального размещения датчиков и коммуникационной инфраструктуры.
Влияние и будущие направления
Информация, полученная в ходе этой поездки, внесет значительный вклад в проект GLOFCA. Расширив наши представления о леднике Баральмос и его озерах, мы сможем улучшить модели прогнозирования опасности и разработать более эффективные стратегии смягчения последствий. Кроме того, усилия по наращиванию потенциала укрепят местные научные возможности, что будет способствовать долгосрочному снижению риска бедствий в регионе.
Собранные данные и знания, которыми поделились участники этой миссии, послужат основой для будущих исследований и помогут в разработке устойчивой инфраструктуры и систем раннего оповещения, что в конечном итоге будет способствовать повышению безопасности и готовности населения Таджикистана.
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