Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a significant hazard in the mountainous regions of Central Asia, posing serious risks to both natural environments and local communities. As part of the GLOFCA project, a recent study was conducted by a team of researchers from the University of Zurich and the University of Central Asia. Their findings, presented at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2024 (EGU24) in Vienna, offer valuable insights into cost-effective disaster risk management (DRM) strategies for these regions.
Study overview
The study “Modelling and evaluating GLOF risk management measures in the Kyrgyz Ala-Archa valley” was led by scientists Laura Niggli, Vitalii Zaginaev, Holger Frey, Simon Allen, and Christian Huggel. The team focused on the Ala-Archa catchment in the Kyrgyz range, south of Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic, where they analyzed the effectiveness and cost-benefit of five potential GLOF DRM measures, which include:
- Current state
- Lake volume reductions
- Extension of existing deflection dam
- Increase height of retention dam and capacity of reservoir
- Early Warning System (EWS)
- Land use planning
Using the RAMMS debris flow software, the researchers simulated two GLOF scenarios to analyze the impact of each DRM measure on hazard and exposure. It formed the basis for the most efficient and effective GLOF risk reduction strategy.
Key Findings
One of the study’s key challenges was quantifying the additional costs — both monetary and non-monetary — associated with implementing complex non-structural GLOF DRM measures like early warning systems (EWS). The effectiveness and sustainability of these measures heavily depend on significant participation from local stakeholders, making the process resource- and time-intensive.
The cost-benefit analysis revealed that while simulations are effective in estimating impacts and costs, they are limited in assessing the benefits, particularly in terms of reducing vulnerabilities. The study advocates for a combination of DRM measures to achieve the most favorable cost-benefit ratio, addressing multiple risk components, including hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.
Presentation at EGU24
The research was showcased at EGU24, one of the larges geoscientific conferences in the World, during a poster session on “Natural Hazards, Vulnerabilities, and Risks in the Mountainous Regions”. It drew considerable interest from the scientific community, with active discussions on the study’s methodology, results, and implications for broader disaster risk management. The researchers emphasized that with the increasing number of glacial lakes and the associated risks linked to climate change, cost-effective GLOF DRM is becoming increasingly important. The study’s approach offers a valuable framework for applying DRM strategies in other mountainous catchments.
This study significantly contributes to our understanding the impacts of GLOF mitigation measures in Central Asia. The findings serve as a vital resource for decisionmakers in developing cost-effective DRM strategies for GLOF-risk regions.
For a more detailed look at the study, the full abstract is available online.
