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Pilot Projects: Kyrgyz Republic

Kyrgyzstan’s northern Tien Shan is home to dozens of unstable glacial lakes. In Ala-Archa and Tosor, GLOFCA monitors high-risk zones and supports preparedness in local communities. These remote alpine valleys are hotspots for mudflows and outburst floods triggered by glacier retreat.

Pilot site 1

  • Overview: Ala-Archa River Valley
Ala-Archa River Valley
The Ala-Archa River originates in the Ala-Archa Gorge of the Tien Shan Mountains, about 40 km south of Bishkek. It flows through the entire gorge and the city before joining the Chu River. Along its course, the river collects meltwater from numerous glacial and snow-fed streams, including Ak-Sai, Top-Karagai, Teke-Tor, Tuyuk-Suu, Adygine, and Djindy-Suu, before reaching the lowlands. With a total length of 78 km (60 km in a straight line), the river supplies the Ala-Archa and Lower Ala-Archa reservoirs and is used for irrigation of agricultural land. The high-water period typically spans from May to September. In its upper reaches, the river runs through the scenic Ala-Archa National Park, a protected area established to conserve the region’s relic juniper forests and diverse Tien Shan wildlife. The park is also a popular destination for trekking and outdoor recreation.
  • Hazard Exposure and Risk
The Ala-Archa Valley has a higher risk of debris flows compared to other valleys in the Northern Tien Shan. These flows are often triggered by sudden outbursts from glacier lakes and intraglacial reservoirs. Almost all side valleys of the Ala-Archa River are exposed to such hazards: Boirok, Kadyrberdy, Karagay-Bulak, Muratsai, Adygine, Aksai, Teketor, Topkaragai, and Dzheldysuu. The most debris-flow-active valleys in the past five years have been Karagay-Bulak, Muratsai, Adygine, and Aksai.
  • History
Aksai Lake, located at 3,700 metres above sea level in the upper reaches of the Aksai Valley, together with the Aksai Glacier waterfall, poses a high risk of outburst floods that can transform into destructive debris flows. These events are typically triggered by the sudden release of water from intraglacial cavities, especially during the summer melt season. Such floods pose a threat to the tourist zone situated on the alluvial fan of the Aksai Valley. Debris flows in this valley have been recorded multiple times, notably in July and August of 1960, 1961, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1980, 1999, and 2015. The recurrence of these events during mid-July to early August suggests that this is the peak hazard period, coinciding with maximum river discharge. Teztor Lake, located at 3,750 metres above sea level in the upper Adygine Valley, is also prone to sudden outbursts. Repeated breaches have caused severe damage to both infrastructure and ecosystems within Ala-Archa National Park. The most destructive event occurred on 31 August 2012, when an outburst triggered a debris flow that partially destroyed the Chyrchyk recreation zone. ther recorded outbursts from Teztor Lake include incidents in June 1953, 1968, 1988, August 2018, and 25–26 July 2024. Additionally, on 23 April 2024, a powerful debris flow descended along the Kashka-Suu tributary of the Ala-Archa River. Eyewitnesses described a torrent of mud over 10 metres high sweeping through the valley with great force; the initial surge lasted 15–20 minutes, followed by turbulent flow into the night. More than 25 houses in a nearby summer village were destroyed, plots were buried under debris, infrastructure was washed away, and one fatality was reported. These recurring events highlight the high hazard level of Teztor Lake, particularly during periods of intense summer melting. The Ala-Archa Valley, especially its recreational zones, remains within a high-risk debris flow area and requires ongoing monitoring and preventive measures.
  • Measures
Efforts to manage mudflow risks in the Ala-Archa Park involve continuous monitoring and evaluation of moraine-glacial lakes.
  • Cultural Significance
Ala-Archa Gorge serves as a key tourism hub, attracting both domestic and international visitors due to its striking natural landscapes, easy accessibility, and well-developed infrastructure. The area offers a range of outdoor activities, with hiking trails of varying difficulty levels that appeal to hikers, climbers, and adventure seekers. The park also holds historical relevance in the field of mountaineering, featuring a dedicated camp and iconic peaks such as Corona Peak and the Peak of Semenov-Tian-Shansky, underscoring its long-standing importance for alpinism and mountain sports.
  • GLOFCA Project:
Under the GLOFCA initiative, comprehensive measures are being implemented to enhance early warning systems and mitigate the impact of glacial lake outburst floods in the Ala-Archa River Valley. This project aims to integrate advanced monitoring technologies and strategic preventive measures to protect communities and infrastructure from the effects of catastrophic mudflow events.

Pilot site 2

  • Overview: Ton-Tosor River Valley
The Tosor river originates at elevations of 3,864 and 3,782 metres above sea level on the northern slope of the Terskey Ala-Too range, fed by two small glaciers located northwest of the Tosor Pass, and one glacier situated at 3,865 metres to the northeast of the same pass. The river stretches 28.5 kilometres from its source to the lakeplain. It flows into the Tosor Bay on the southern shore of Lake Issyk-Kul. Its primary source is snow and glacier meltwater.
  • Hazard Exposure and Risk
Like many mountain rivers, the Tosor River is prone to flooding, particularly following heavy rains or snowmelt. Debris flows caused by natural events can also pose risks to nearby settlements and infrastructure.
  • History
On 8 August 2019, a debris flow occurred in Jeti-Oguz District of Issyk-Kul Region at kilometre 10 of the Tosor–Archaly road. The flow completely destroyed the rural road.
  • Measures
  • Cultural Significance
The Tosor River, which flows into Lake Issyk-Kul, holds both cultural and historical significance for the region. It is one of the lake’s main freshwater sources and plays a crucial role in supporting its ecosystem.
  • GLOFCA Project:
Under the GLOFCA initiative, reinforcing measures are being implemented to mitigate the impact of glacial lake outburst floods.